China Is Days Away From Revealing
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The target for gross domestic product growth is usually the anchor for the nation's system of policy making, but the coronavirus crisis this year has led to such great uncertainty that officials have considered abandoning it altogether.
If the leadership does decide to publish a numerical target at the National People's Congress Newport Pleasure as in previous years, it has faced the dilemma of where to set it: Too high a number risks binding officials to costly stimulus and higher debt. Too low a number makes plain that the government won't meet its own objective of doubling the size of the economy this decade.
"This year, if a target is adopted, it may look more like a forecast than a task to be accomplished at any Newport Pleasure cost," said Ding Shuang, chief economist of Greater China & North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong, forecasting the goal will be kept flexible at around 2% to 3%. "A more flexible GDP target suggests wider deviations from the number would be allowed if justified by domestic or external shocks."
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